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Summary

24 COVER STORY

16 COVER STORY
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION NOVEMBER

CONTINUES TO CHANGE FOR CPI UP SLIGHTLY

THE BETTER

T hough the global economic situation is still
problematic and market demand is yet to recover,
with a stable macro-economic foundation and
synchronous measures to support domestic production,
expand the domestic market, and boost exports, industrial
production in November continued to see positive signs. C ompared to October, the CPI in November increased
According to the General Statistics Office of Vietnam (GSO), just 0.25 per cent, due to certain localities raising the
the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) in November was cost of medical services and tuition fees while
estimated to have increased by 3 per cent against October domestic rice prices continued upwards on the back of
and by 5.8 per cent compared to November 2022. This is the higher export prices. Figures show that core inflation in
highest growth posted for the past 13 months. Overall, in the November rose 0.16 per cent over October and 3.15 per cent
first eleven months of 2023, the IIP was estimated to have against November last year. On average, in the first eleven
increased by 1 per cent compared to the same period last months of 2023, core inflation increased 4.27 per cent year-
year. The manufacturing and processing sector has affirmed on-year; higher than the average CPI increase of 3.22 per
its No. 1 position, continuing to lead in FDI attraction. cent. The main reason is that average domestic gasoline
prices fell by 12.12 per cent in the first eleven months of 2023
year-on-year and gas prices 7.5 per cent. These restrained
18 COVER STORY CPI growth, but neither gasoline nor gas are used to
measure core inflation.
Exports suddenly decline;
growth target becomes
8 ECONOMY - POLICY
‘impossible’

A fter every effort was made to regain growth momentum
in October, exports suddenly fell 3.6 per cent in
November. In the first eleven months of the year,
exports were down 5.9 per cent over the same period last year.
According to the General Statistics Office of Vietnam (GSO), OPINIONS OFFERED ON
most industries are facing difficulties in export markets,
especially key export markets. With this result, the targeted NORTH-SOUTH HIGH-SPEED
$393-394 billion in export revenue for 2023 as a whole is now
impossible, because revenue in December would need to stand
at $70.5 billion. August saw the highest export turnover this RAILWAY PROJECT
year, with $32.37 billion, which then fell in September to
$31.41 billion. In October, it increased again, reaching $32. 31
T scenarios for investment in and the construction of
billion, but in November fell to $31.08 billion. he Ministry of Transport has proposed three

the North-South high-speed railway line, including
a scenario of running mixed passenger and cargo trains at
a speed of 350 kph. According to experts, nowhere in the
world has permitted the operation of mixed trains with
such a speed. The operation of passenger trains and the
provision for freight transport in the future, when needed,
under this scenario is therefore impossible. Furthermore,
Vietnam is yet to master high-speed railway technology to
allow a speed of 350 kph, so will be dependent on foreign
countries both in the construction stage and in operations.
Experts recommend selecting investment scenarios that
are both feasible and suitable for the country’s situation.

4 KINH TẾ VIỆT NAM | Số 49 | Ngày 4/12/2023 www.vneconomy.vn