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UNCERTAINTIES 7.3 per cent to make up for the rather low
rate in 2021 of 2.58 per cent.
With 2023 growth being just over 5
AHEAD per cent, the annual average in the two
remaining years of 2024 and 2025 must
now be at least 8 per cent.
This is no easy task in the context of
As it enters into 2024, Vietnam boasts the conditions lingering and unpredictable economic
necessary to achieve its five-year plan but must also uncertainties around the globe, while cer-
tain internal difficulties in Vietnam’s econ-
grapple with a host of difficulties.
omy cannot be addressed overnight.
| By QUOC UY Undoubtedly, a range of challenges but
also opportunities lie ahead for the country
as it enters the new year of 2024.
In the socio-economic development plan
for the year, under NA Resolution No.
103/2023/QH15, growth is targeted at 6-
6.5 per cent; per capita income at $4,700-
4,730; the contribution of manufacturing
and processing to GDP is to hit 24.1-24.2
per cent; average productivity growth is to
be 4.8-5.3 per cent; the agricultural work-
force is to continue to fall, accounting for
26.5 per cent of the country’s total workforce;
and trained workers are to make up about
69 per cent of all workers.
These targets are all within Vietnam’s
reach, with some, such as growth, being
PHOTO: VIET TUAN lower than forecasts from Vietnam’s part-
ner organizations.
Achieving the 2024 plan in general and
its targets in particular will depend on many
ietnam posted important achieve- rate, among others, was the significant internal and external factors, including
ments in 2023 in terms of socio- decline in the country’s export turnover mechanisms and policies, efforts by min-
V economic development, with at compared to 2022, due to falling aggregate istries, agencies, localities, the business com-
least ten of the 15 targets set for the year demand in many countries, especially in munity and workers as a whole, the business
reached, while inflation was kept under Vietnam’s main export markets. and production environments, global eco-
control at less than 4 per cent, the consumer According to figures from the General nomic fluctuations, and geopolitical com-
price index (CPI) increased by less than 4 Statistics Office of Vietnam (GSO), total petitiveness, among many others.
per cent, growth was promoted, major export value in 2023, as of December 20, It is hoped that 2024 will be better
balances in the national economy were was estimated at some $355.5 billion, a than 2023 for Vietnam, in terms of socio-
guaranteed, and FDI inflows continued year-on-year decline of 4.4 per cent. economic outlook.
to surge, with $36.61 billion more registered A host of problems affected the country’s A host of unpredictable circumstances,
capital as of December 20, a year-on-year economy last year. While internal factors including changing climate and challenges
increase of 32.1 per cent. included difficulties, shortcomings, and lim- from ongoing global economic and polit-
Some main targets, however, including itations, external factors included rapid, ical uncertainties, still lie ahead for the
annual growth, were not reached. Macro- complex, and unpredictable developments country, however.
economic stability is still to be truly steady in the regional and international situations. Vietnam’s economy will certainly face
due to major external pressure, while pro- 2023 was considered a pivotal year in many challenges, including possible neg-
duction and business activities have faced the successful implementation of the five- ative impacts from the application of the
numerous ongoing difficulties and the year (2021-2025) socio-economic devel- Global Minimum Tax from January 1,
implementation of certain elements within opment plan adopted by the 13th National 2024, under a resolution from the NA on
national target programs and the socio- Party Congress in early 2021. topped-up corporate income taxes under
economic recovery and development pro- It is clear that given the limits identified the Global Anti-Base Erosion (GloBE)
gram remain slow. in socio-economic development during rules, which may result in a decline in
Vietnam’s GDP growth in 2023 is esti- the year that Vietnam will need greater FDI inflows, as tax incentives for foreign
mated at over 5 per cent; far short of the efforts and more resources, both internal investment are no longer applied.
target of 6.5 per cent set by the National and external, over the next two years to Nevertheless, there is no alternative
Assembly (NA) in Resolution No. achieve its five-year socio-economic devel- for Vietnam but to achieve its 2024 socio-
68/2022/QH15, which it passed on Novem- opment targets. economic development plan.
ber 10, 2022, on the socio-economic devel- It was previously calculated that in If it fails to do so, the five-year (2021-
opment plan for 2023. The rate was sig- order to achieve annual average growth of 2025) plan will be at risk of failing to
nificantly lower than the decade-high of 6.5 per cent in the five year period, as tar- meet the requirements set forth by the
8.02 per cent posted in 2022. geted, the annual average over the three 13th National Party Congress.
One main contributor to the low growth years from 2023 to 2025 would have to be There are no other options.

6 | VIETNAM ECONOMIC TIMES | JANUARY 2024 en.vneconomy.vn